Deciphering the
AI Supremacy Index
The global race for artificial intelligence is no longer just about software - it is a complex geopolitical struggle for technological sovereignty. Through our capstone project, we aim to provide a data-driven framework to monitor, compare, and understand the core drivers of AI development by synthesizing disparate indicators into a single index.
AISI Methodology
With the AI Supremacy Index (AISI), our analysis dissects the shifting landscape of international power, evaluating how nations leverage research, infrastructure, and capital to lead the next industrial revolution through 7 Key Performance Indicators.
1. Hardware Sovereignty
- Avg Market Share: Average share across inputs (35%)
- Peak Market Share: Maximum share in any single input (30%)
- Breadth: Inputs with presence / 96 total scored inputs (35%)
2. Research Capacity
- Log Publication Volume: Log-transformed average articles over latest 3 years (35%)
- Lagged Citation Impact: Citations per article using 2021–2023 window (45%)
- Z-Scored Growth Trend: % change from early 3 years to latest 3 years, Z-score normalized (20%)
3. Commercial Ecosystem
- Log Investment Volume: Log-transformed total estimated AI investment (50%)
- Log Company Count: Log-transformed number of AI companies in PARAT (30%)
- Publication Intensity: Average AI publications per company (20%)
4. Innovation Output
- Log Patent Volume: Log-transformed total patent applications (45%)
- Field Diversity: Distinct AI subfields with patent activity / 11 fields (55%)
5. Talent Base
Tiered fallback scoring: Tier 1 uses AI workforce presence (≥3 companies with data). Tier 2 falls back to AI publications. Tier 3 uses company count only.
6. Collaboration Network
- Partner Diversity: Unique partner countries, capped at 54 (40%)
- Strategic Volume: Total co-authored articles with strategic weighting (35%)
- Partner Quality: Average strength of collaboration partners (25%)
7. Governance Readiness
- Enacted Documents: Log-transformed count of enacted AI legislation (30%)
- Thematic Breadth: Unique taxonomy tags covered / 77 total tags (40%)
- Maturity Ratio: Enacted documents / total documents (30%)
Coverage-Weighted Composite Calculation
Raw scores are Min-Max normalized to 0–100 per dimension. Missing values (NaN) for genuinely absent dimensions are filled with 0.
× Breadth Factor: 0.75 + 0.25 × (dimensions_scored / 7)
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Our analysis leverages first-class datasets from the Emerging Technology Observatory (ETO), providing the empirical backbone for the AI Supremacy Index.
Country AI Activity Metrics
Comprehensive tracking of publications, citations, patents, and investment across nations, categorized by year and AI field.
Cross-Border Tech Research Metrics
A deep dive into international collaboration, featuring extensive records of cross-country research co-authorship.
Private-Sector AI Indicators
Granular data on corporate AI activity, including AI workforce presence, publication volume, and specific company profiles.
Advanced Semiconductor Supply Chain
Market share and presence data for semiconductor providers globally, tracing the strategic hardware foundation of AI.
AGORA Dataset
Critical policy and regulatory data points, tracking the global landscape of AI governance and high-level strategy.
Full Analysis Pipeline
Access the complete Python analytical pipeline, including all notebooks, data processing logic, and scoring scripts.
Project Introduction Video
Explore our latest video analysis on the shifting tides of global AI leadership and technological sovereignty.
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full AISI architecture?
Analyze Top 15 nations and thousands of multi-dimensional data points processed through our proprietary AISI Dashboard.